The report, The Real Level of Unemployment 2022: the myth of full employment across Britain, published today (Monday 23 May) provides an alternative set of unemployment figures for every unitary and district authority in Britain.
The authors of the report argue that the real level of unemployment in Britain is 2.3 million – a million more than official figures suggest.
The report recognises that the most prosperous parts of the country are now at or close to full employment but argues that in 2022 there are really ‘three Britains’:
- Full employment Britain (142 local authorities, 20m people, average unemployment 2.8%)
- Middling Britain (168 local authorities, 31m people, average unemployment 6%)
- High unemployment Britain (64 local authorities, 14m people, 9.4% average unemployment)
Substantial unemployment is hidden on incapacity benefits, the report says. In total, more than 2.5 million men and women of working age are presently out-of-work on incapacity benefits. Of these, the report estimates that almost 800,000 would have been in work in a genuinely fully employed economy.
The report finds that hidden unemployment is disproportionately concentrated in the weakest local economies, particularly Britain’s older industrial areas and a number of seaside towns.
Professor Steve Fothergill, from Sheffield Hallam’s Centre for Regional Economic and Social Research, one of the co-authors of the report, said: “While unemployment is clearly down on levels during the pandemic and down on the levels of the 1980s and early 1990s, the Treasury, the Bank of England and economic commentators should not fool themselves into believing Britain has reached anything like full employment. Our estimates, based on tried-and-tested methods, put the real level of unemployment at 2.3 million – a full million higher than the government’s current preferred figure.
“With unemployment so much higher in some parts of the country than others, the new emphasis on ‘Levelling Up’ is one of the keys to bringing the numbers down. So far, however, we haven’t seen additional funding and action on the scale needed to meet the challenge, especially if the national economy now runs into headwinds.”
